Heat Across a City
This example shows how the Extreme Heat Mapper can be used to compare heat conditions across different types of urban and suburban areas during the same simulated heat event. By selecting places such as downtown, a hospital, an airport, a park, and suburbs with different tree-cover levels, we can see how heat varies across the city and how those patterns relate to land cover, population, and heat vulnerability.
This approach can be applied by selecting local areas of interest, comparing land cover and demographic characteristics, and then reviewing hourly and 10-year heat metrics together. The results can help identify where heat interventions may be most urgent, where green infrastructure may be feasible, and where local heat conditions may differ from the weather-station data commonly used for public warnings.
Select the map bounds
In the Location tab, select the county containing the city of interest.
In the Timeframe tab, “Hottest hour” is selected by default. After areas are selected, the hour can be adjusted.
Set up the map view
After the map loads, open the Layers tab in the upper-right map pane and select Census Block Groups or Census Tracts to show smaller boundaries.
Use
Select
at the top of the map to add areas by clicking them.
Increase the temperature-map transparency to see the basemap and more easily select areas near hospitals, parks, or other landmarks.
Select areas across a city
The selected areas include an airport, downtown, a hospital, a park, a high-tree-cover suburb, and a low-tree-cover suburb. Other useful comparison areas may include commercial zones, construction areas with outdoor workers, or agricultural land.
After selecting the areas, assign each area a color and alias so the table and map are easier to read. Save the changes, then export the selections as a .uhim file so the same areas and custom appearances can be imported later. Turn on tinted table rows to distinguish area types more easily.
Compare Area Characteristics
The Land, Census, and Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) tabs summarize each area’s population, land cover, and heat vulnerability.
Land Cover
The Land tab summarizes land-cover data for each selected area. Key patterns include:
- Tree cover is highest in the high-tree-cover suburb, followed by the park.
- Impervious cover is highest downtown, followed by the hospital and the low-tree-cover suburb.
- Plantable space is estimated by subtracting tree cover and impervious cover from total land area. It is highest in the park, airport, and high-tree-cover suburb, where grass and other open land are more common.
Areas with low tree cover and high plantable space may be good candidates for green infrastructure or other heat interventions, depending on their heat exposure and population characteristics.
Census Data
The Census tab shows population characteristics for each selection and helps identify where people, especially vulnerable groups, are concentrated. This context helps target interventions to high-impact areas. In this example:
- Disadvantaged communities are concentrated downtown and near the hospital.
- The park and airport areas have lower incomes and higher percentages of people of color, which may be associated with greater outdoor heat exposure. However, these areas have smaller older adult and disabled populations, two groups with higher susceptibility to heat stress.
- The largest population concentrations are downtown, in the low-tree-cover suburb, and in the airport block group.
These population and demographic indicators show who may be affected by an extreme heat event and how many people are exposed.
Heat Vulnerability Index
The HVI tab combines statewide heat, population, and health-outcome indicators into a broader heat-risk profile. In this example:
The HVI ranks the suburbs highest for heat exposure, largely because of the increase in days above 85°F heat index from 2000 to 2021. Heat index combines air temperature and humidity to estimate how hot conditions feel to the human body.
Sociodemographic vulnerability is highest near the hospital and downtown, largely because of heat risk among the Black/African American population.
Health-outcome susceptibility is highest near the hospital, driven in part by the highest kidney-failure hospitalization rate in the statewide non-NYC dataset.
Together, these indicators give the hospital area the highest overall Heat Vulnerability Index ranking, followed by the downtown and suburban areas.
Compare Heat
With the population and land-cover context in place, compare urban heat patterns during a simulated extreme heat event and examine how that same event changes in the 2050s replay. In the Extreme Heat Mapper, “historical” means a calibrated climate-model recreation of a past weather event, not direct observations. “Future” means that same recreated event is replayed under a hotter 2050s climate, with climate-forced changes in temperature, moisture, and related weather fields. It is not an independent climate projection that creates its own weather sequence. Both the historical recreation and 2050s replay are then processed through the i-Tree Cool Air temperature model, which accounts for tree canopy, impervious surface, other land cover, elevation, anthropogenic heat, and related local factors to produce the spatial temperature maps and tables shown in the tool. Results can be explored as hourly values for a single event and as 10-year average summaries.
The Temperature tab reports statistics for the hour shown on the map: the maximum value within the selected area (the hottest pixel), the mean across all pixels in the area, and the minimum value.
Sorting by air temperature shows that the highest maximum values occur downtown, at the airport, and near the hospital. These same areas remain among the hottest in the 2050s replay. For this hour, however, the largest increases occur downtown for maximum and mean temperature and in the low-tree-cover suburb for minimum temperature.
Although maximum temperatures in the hottest areas are close to one another, about 0.5°F apart, mean temperature better summarizes conditions across each full area. Downtown’s mean temperature is more than 1°F higher than the suburban areas.
High minimum temperatures indicate areas with little green space and mostly residential or urban development. Because downtown includes a park, the highest minimum temperatures occur in the low-tree-cover suburb and near the hospital. Tonawanda, the low-tree-cover suburb, also has the largest increase in minimum temperature.
Repeat this process for the heat index and wet bulb globe temperature tables. WBGT combines air temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation to estimate heat stress. Sorting each statistic and decade helps compare extreme and average heat conditions during the event.
The Climate tab summarizes the 300-meter, 10-year i-Tree Cool Air simulations for 2010-2019 and 2050-2059 using the thermodynamic global warming dataset. These 10-year summaries are separate from the 30-meter maps, which show a single simulated heat event.
The first table reports the average maximum heat metric from June through September over each 10-year period. It loads with Heat Index selected by default. The largest average heat-index increases occur in the suburbs, where lawns and limited shade can compound heat stress. However, these suburbs still have lower absolute heat-index values than the other compared areas.
The Heat Advisories & Warnings section summarizes how often high-heat conditions occur. For New York State heat events, defined here as heat index above 95°F for at least two hours, downtown, the hospital, and the park each have at least one event when the airport does not meet the same threshold. This matters because heat advisories are often based on airport weather-station readings, which can be cooler than nearby urban areas because of the urban heat island effect.
Export Map
The table review suggests three main findings:
- The hospital and downtown areas have the highest heat vulnerability and are also disadvantaged communities, making them high priorities for heat interventions. Lower plantable space, however, may limit some green-infrastructure options.
- The suburbs have lower overall heat vulnerability, but heat increases faster there in the 2050s replay. Their larger older adult and disabled populations may also increase heat risk.
- Some urban areas are hotter than the airport where heat events are often measured. Local high-heat conditions may therefore occur even when airport-based thresholds are not reached.
The selected areas and tables can be exported together to share findings. Center the selected areas in the frame as much as possible and leave room in one corner for the legend before moving to the Export tab. In the Export tab, add a legend that includes the title, temperature scale, and selected areas in the bottom-left corner. Then export the map as a PNG file.
Conclusion
This example demonstrates that the hottest places are not always the same as the most vulnerable places. Downtown and hospital areas may have higher heat vulnerability and more disadvantaged communities, while suburban areas may show larger future increases in heat during the 2050s replay. Suburban populations may sometimes have higher rates of disabled or elderly individuals; living alone further increases risk. The example also illustrates that airport-based heat measurements may not fully represent nearby urban conditions, since city areas can exceed heat-event thresholds even when the airport does not.